Aircraft production levels will peter out through 2025 and recover modestly by 2030, finds Frost & Sullivan’s Aerospace Team
Large and heavy-medium business jets have sustained the business aircraft market for several years and continue to do so, driving aircraft production to an all-time high. This situation, however, is unlikely to persist, as segments such as the light business aircraft may never fully recover from the production slump inflicted by the economic downturn. Aircraft production growth will be negligible through 2025 and will resume modestly thereafter.
One of the most active areas in the aerospace industry is the unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) segment. Many countries are planning to purchase military aircraft for defense and security, but those numbers will be curtailed by focused defense spending all over the world. Even commercial UAV’s substantial unit sales growth will not be matched by its revenue growth.
2030 Vision for the Aerospace Industry, is part of the Aerospace Growth Partnership Service program, which also includes insights on security control rooms, military training and simulation, missile defense, military helicopter, commercial aircraft connectivity, military unmanned aircraft, Airbus, Boeing, civil unmanned aerial systems, commercial sub-orbital and LEO spaceflight services.
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One of the major influential trends in the aerospace industry is the recent reduction in oil prices, which has softened the demand for flight efficiency. Still, fuels costs will remain one of the biggest expenses for fleet owners and will affect their modernization decisions.
“Air transport stakeholders will weigh carbon taxes against fuel prices while making decisions,” said Aerospace & Defense Director Wayne Plucker. “Carbon taxes were delayed in 2014 due to international disagreements, but it is only a matter of time before a consensus is arrived at. Brexit notwithstanding, the European Emissions Trading Scheme will continue and eventually, some version of the tax will exist globally for all flights.”
Significantly, aerospace technologies are becoming obsolete at an alarming rate. Convincing the aviation authorities of the airworthiness of a new technology for civil airliners can take decades. Instead, aircraft manufacturers could incorporate a technology that has already enjoyed success in other industries to shorten the market acceptance time.
At the same time, cutting-edge technologies for communications between aircraft components and ground installations offer several advantages. It can reduce costs, minimize design complexity, and provide the operator with the tools to optimize fleet utilization.
“Healthy activity is also expected in the small satellite market despite the high manufacturing costs that often deter entrants and stifle competition,” noted Plucker. “Countries all over the world will wish to invest in it; yet, by 2030, the market will be dominated by new sensor packages, not new platforms.”
Asia-Pacific will remain the largest air transport market in terms of sales, even though the traditional western suppliers still define the market. China will be the single biggest regional market accelerator due to the popularity of its military platforms and air transport aircraft. The Rest of the World (RoW) market will be largely represented by the Middle East due to its sizeable growth in air transport aircraft, business aircraft and civil helicopters.
The European market is expected to experience a fall in military aircraft spending as Eurofighter deliveries are completed. Its air transport aircraft segment will expand, but its civil helicopters and business aircraft segments will be less dynamic. The North American market will be a mixed bag, with a slight decline in helicopter spending and military fixed wing aircraft. However, air transport and business aircraft deliveries will increase at a reasonable rate, as will the demand for UAVs.
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2030 Vision for the Aerospace Industry
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